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Irak ilk kez eski başbakan ve cumhurbaşkanlarının aday olmadığı bir seçime gidiyor

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Irak ilk kez eski başbakan ve cumhurbaşkanlarının aday olmadığı bir seçime gidiyor

Siyasi ve ekonomik kriz ile tıkanıklığın yıprattığı Irak, 10 Ekim’de yapılacak erken genel seçimlere hazırlanıyor. Ülkede daha önce görev yapan birçok başbakan ve cumhurbaşkanı ise bu seçim yarışından uzak duruyor.

ABD’nin 2003’teki işgali sonrası Irak’ın ilk Cumhurbaşkanı olan Şeyh Gazi Acil Yaver (2005-2006) görevi sona erdiği günden bu yana siyasetten uzak bir yaşam sürdürüyor. Celal Talabani’nin vefatından sonra Cumhurbaşkanlığı yapan ve görevi sona erince siyasi hayatını noktalayan Kürt siyasetçi Fuad Masum da yaşamını yurt dışında sürdürüyor.

Mevcut Cumhurbaşkanı Berhem Salih’in ise her ne kadar seçimlerde aday olamasa da ikinci dönem Cumhurbaşkanlığı görevini istediği biliniyor. Salih, bir süre önce Katar merkezli Al Jazeera televizyonuna verdiği mülakatta bu isteğini dile getirmişti.

Irak’ta eski başbakanlardan İyad Allavi de adaylıktan çekildiğini duyurdu. Şii olmasına rağmen Arap-Sünni- laik kesimin siyasi öncüsü konumundaki Allavi’nin hem yaşının ilerlemesi hem de aday gösterdiği kızı Sare Allavi’nin önünü açmak için adaylıktan çekildiği iddia ediliyor.

2015’te Cumhurbaşkanı Yardımcılığı görevi sonlandırılan Allavi’nin aktif siyasi hayatı da neredeyse son bulmuştu. Allavi, sadece Mecliste 21 sandalyesi bulunan Vataniye Grubuna başkanlık ediyordu.

Maliki’nin yeniden başbakanlık hayali

Irak’ta 2003 sonrası en uzun süreli (2006-2014) başbakanlık yapan Nuri Maliki de bu seçimlerde şahsen aday değil.

Eski Başbakan’ın çevresi, Kanun Devleti Koalisyonu adıyla seçime giren grubun başkanlığını yapan Maliki’nin yeni dönemde başbakanlık koltuğuna oturacağını öne sürüyor.

Maliki, yakın zamandaki bir röportajında “başbakanlık koltuğunun verilmesi halinde bunu reddetmeyeceğini” ifade etmişti. Ancak Maliki, hem sokağın hem de siyasi hasmı olan Mukteda es-Sadr’ın vetosundan endişe ediyor. Terör örgütü DEAŞ’ın 2014’te ülkenin üçte birini işgal etmesi sonrası sert eleştirilere maruz kalan Maliki, söz konusu işgale bir ölçüde izin vermekle suçlanıyor.

Eski başbakanlardan İbrahim Caferi ve Haydar el-İbadi de Allavi ve Maliki gibi seçimlerde aday değil. İngiltere’de yaşadığı bilinen Caferi 2014-2108 yıllarında İbadi hükümetinde Dışişleri Bakanlığı da yapmıştı.

2018 seçimlerinde aday olarak Meclise giren İbadi ise bu seçimde adaylığını koymayarak, Şii dini ve siyasi lider Ammar Hekim ile “Ulusal Devlet Güçleri” adlı koalisyona eş başkanlık yapmayı tercih etti.

Ekim 2019’daki gösterilerin ardından koltuğunu bırakmak zorunda kalan eski Başbakan Adil Abdulmehdi de bu seçimde adaylık yarışı içine girmedi. Abdulmehdi, Cumhurbaşkanlığı Yardımcılığı ve Petrol Bakanlığı da yapmıştı. Abdulmedi, sivil göstericilere karşı şiddet kullanılmasına izin verdiği yönündeki eleştirilerin odağında yer almayı sürdürüyor.

Mevcut Başbakan Mustafa el-Kazımi de seçimde ne aday oldu ne de bir parti ya da koalisyon kurarak bu yarışa katıldı.

Kazımi’nin bu kararının arkasında ikinci dönem başbakanlık isteği yattığı ifade ediliyor. Nitekim, ABD ve İran’ın yanı sıra Kazımi, bölge, Körfez ve Batı ülkeleri tarafından da desteklenen bir Başbakan konumunda bulunuyor ve bu durumun bir dönem daha görevi sürdürmesine yardımcı olacağını düşünüyor.

Aynı zamanda eski İstihbarat Servisi Başkanı olan Kazımi, Bağdat’ta İran ve Suudi Arabistan’ı masaya oturtan bir misyon da icra etti. İki zıt kutbu uzlaştırmaya çalışan Kazımi’nin bununla başbakanlık arzusuna erişeceği ihtimalleri üzerinde duruluyor.

Irak’ta, Başbakan, Cumhurbaşkanı ve Bakan olmak isteyenlerin milletvekili olma şartı bulunmuyor.

“Allavi siyasi mevta, Maliki ise yeni seçim yasasından korkuyor”

Iraklı siyasi analist Ali Mümtaz, ​​​​​​​AA muhabirine, eski başbakan ve cumhurbaşkanlarının 10 Ekim’de yapılacak seçimde aday olmamalarını değerlendirdi.

Mümtaz, şunları kaydetti:

“İyad Allavi, siyasi ve toplumsal olarak neredeyse iflas etmiş ve hiçbir taban desteği kalmamış bir siyasetçi. Allavi, yanındakileri bile kaybetmiş siyasi bir mevta durumunda. Allavi’nin son siyasi dönemi 2018 seçimleriydi. Sünni Araplar artık Muhammed Halbusi ve Hamis Hançer’in önderliğindeki yeni siyasi güçlerle yola devam edecek. Laik Sünni Araplar da Allavi’den uzaklaşmış görünüyor. Maliki ise kapalı liste olan eski seçim yasasına güvenerek aday olduğu bölgeden yanında onlarca kişiyi de Meclise taşıyordu. Şimdi ise bu yasa değişti ve seçimde aday olmak kendisi için risk anlamına geliyor. Kaldı ki tabanda da eski gücü ve desteği kalmadı. Başbakan Kazımi ise seçimlerde aday olmayarak bir dönem daha başbakanlık yapmak istiyor.”

“Eski liderler, başarısızlıklarını fonladıkları yeni kişilerle örtmeye çalışıyor”

Iraklı bir diğer analist Raad Haşim ise geleneksel siyasi liderlerin seçimde doğrudan aday olmama nedenlerini şöyle açıkladı:

“Eski liderler bu sefer birtakım yeni yüzleri öne sürerek seçime katılmayı tercih etti. Ekim gösterileri de yeniden aday olmamalarında önemli bir faktör. Bunlar, siyaseti bilfiil içinde olmadan uzaktan yönetme arzusu ve düşüncesindeler. Geçmişteki makam ve koltukların kendilerine ‘büyük ve deneyimli siyasetçi’ havası kazandırdığını düşünüyorlar ve Meclis seçimlerinde aday olmak artık kendilerine küçük geliyor.”

Bu liderleri 2003 sonrası “ilk siyasi nesil” olarak nitelendiren Haşim, söz konusu liderlerin seçimde aday gösterdikleri isimleri maddi olarak kendilerine bağladığını ve bu isimlerin yeni dönemde onların talimatlarını yerine getireceğini söyledi.

Maliki’nin başbakanlığı sırasında atanan ve halen görevlerde bulunan askeri ve güvenlik komutanlarının kendisine oy verme eğiliminde olduğuna işaret edem Haşim, “Bu kişiler, aynı zamanda elde ettikleri büyük servetleri seçimde halkın oyunu almak için kullanıyor. Bu da Irak siyasetindeki ruminasyonun süreceği anlamına geliyor. Bu sistem yeni genç yüzlerin siyasete girmesini engelliyor. Eski liderler, yönetimdeyken imza attıkları acziyet ve başarısızlıkları kendilerinin fonlayarak sahaya sürdüğü yeni kişilerle örtmeye çalışıyor. Geleneksel siyasi liderlerin bazı dış ülkelerden de destekçileri var.” değerlendirmesinde bulundu.

“Kazımi, İran ve ABD’yi razı ederse emeline ulaşabilir”

Mevcut Başbakan Kazımi için ayrı bir parantez açılması gerektiği kanaatini savunan Haşimi, şunları söyledi:

“Kazımi, ilk nesil siyasetçilerden değil ve ikinci dönem başbakanlığı için çabalıyor. Kazımi; Sadr ve Hekim’in önderlik ettiği siyasi kanattan destek görüyor ve İran ile ABD’yi razı edebilirse bu emeline ulaşabilir. Kazımi, bunun için ABD ve İran’a ziyaretler gerçekleştirerek arka kapı diplomasisi yürüttü ve yürütüyor.”

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